Opinion: What comes next
The Iran war will have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences
As the war on Iran enters its fourth day, it’s becoming apparent that the US and Israel have failed to land an early knockout blow. Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders have been killed but the regime is intact, and there is no indication of a cohesive opposition force on the ground.
US, Israeli and GCC air defences have intercepted most of Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage so far. Nevertheless, their ammunition is limited and there are indications that Iran is burning through them with cheap drones and older missiles, holding its most advanced missiles in reserve. If their launchers survive, they can pose a threat for months to come.
Iran is the most formidable enemy America has fought since at least Vietnam. It has the social complexity of Iraq, the terrain of Afghanistan, and the population of both combined. Its politics are unique and what comes next is impossible to predict. All that’s clear is that there will be no clean regime change and that the consequences will be global and long-term.
Here, then, are various scenarios for how the situation could evolve over the coming weeks and months. These ideas do not necessarily exclude each other, and some are more likely than others. They’re intended to stimulate debate and assist with forecasting and scenario planning:
Inside Iran
Messy revolution Iran’s grassroots protest movement is rekindled and overthrows the regime – but with no real hierarchy or credible opposition leaders, it struggles to create a stable successor.
Regime consolidated Iranians rally around the flag, allowing the regime to crush dissent and appoint a younger generation of leaders, more energetic and capable than those who have been eliminated.
Pragmatists prevail Moderates within the regime take power and negotiate an honourable peace through backchannels to the US. The regime remains largely intact and tensions remain.
Nuclear breakout Iran dashes for nuclear enrichment and succeeds in creating enough fissile material for a warhead. This takes at least several months. With regime survival at stake, the use of such a weapon can’t be discounted.
Ethnic fragmentation One or more ethnic minority groups, concentrated in Iran’s peripheral regions, take advantage of the regime’s weakness to form de facto independent ethno-states, along the lines of Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Local strongmen exercise power through clan-based patronage networks.
US posture
Abandonment The US declares ‘mission accomplished’ if the regime is overthrown, Khamenei’s successor is less radical, or the nuclear program is demonstrably set back. There is no guarantee Iran would respect a unilateral end to hostilities, however.
Bombing without end With Iran’s air defences mostly eliminated, the US continues a strategic bombing campaign indefinitely. Iran is impoverished and unable to respond militarily, but the regime remains in place and the population is radicalised.
Boots on the ground The regime’s survival prompts the US to escalate, perhaps after being targeted by a terror attack. US forces take major cities and put in place a puppet regime, but fail to prevent a major insurgency.
Domestic instability The war, begun without Congressional approval, is deemed illegal by significant parts of the US establishment, particularly if it escalates to a ground commitment. This leads to widespread protests, Trump being impeached, or – in extremis – senior officers refusing to obey unlawful orders.
Regional fallout
Oil dries up Iran maintains enough of a threat to shipping that the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted indefinitely. It may develop naval drones akin to Ukraine’s Sea Baby that can be covertly launched from anywhere along its coast. Oil prices are persistently high but GCC countries struggle to ship their exports.
Iraq collapses Shia militias linked to Iran become more active and may overthrow the government, particularly if the latter’s oil revenue is disrupted. Iraq collapses into civil war; or the militias take control and use Iraqi state assets to assist the Iranian regime.
GCC instability Collapsing oil revenues and the flight of wealthy expats and tourists put a severe strain on GCC economies. The social contract, based on extensive patronage, comes under pressure, possibly leading to elite infighting or social unrest.
Global implications
Power shifts East Popular opinion in the Global South turns sharply against the US, fuelled by Russian and Chinese propaganda about an unprovoked war of aggression. China’s power quietly grows.
Russia emboldened High oil prices fill Russia’s war chest, limiting the effectiveness of sanctions and allowing it to maintain its war against Ukraine. A prolonged war in Iran or instability in the US may embolden Vladimir Putin to attack other countries in Europe.
Chinese opportunism China takes advantage of America’s distraction and the depletion of its long-range strike missiles and air defence interceptors – both crucial to a Pacific campaign. It becomes more aggressive towards Taiwan or seizes disputed islands in the South China Sea.
Global terror attacks Groups linked to or sympathetic to the Iranian regime carry out terror attacks against American or Israeli – or simply Jewish – interests around the world. Indiscriminate attacks in other Western or GCC cities are also possible.